On Tuesday last week, Arizona State first-year football coach Kenny Dillingham said all the right things about the Sun Devils’ self-imposed bowl ban being “horrible news” for him and his team. However, a look under the hood shows that Dillingham’s probably exaggerating just how bad the news is.
Far from being horrible news, this ban is probably the best news the Sun Devils could have gotten. Here’s why this supposedly stiff punishment the school put on itself is a thinly-disguised boost for the football program.
A Tough Season Ahead: Why Arizona State Was Unlikely to Make a Bowl
Even with eight home games, it was always going to be hard for the Sun Devils to do any better than 6-6. Their first half of the season has some forgiving opportunities, as they shouldn’t lose to Southern Utah or Fresno State. But they also host both Oklahoma State and USC, which are both likely losses. A road game at California could go either way, and nobody knows what Colorado will look like.
The back half, however, is brutal. ASU face the Washington Huskies, Utah and UCLA away and finish with Oregon and rival Arizona at home. The Sun Devils could easily lose all six. With this team having just gone 3-9, a quick rebound off this slate was always improbable.
NCAA’s Historical Leniency: How Self-Imposed Penalties Often Stick
One couldn’t blame the NCAA if it decided to take offense at schools trying to punish themselves before the NCAA can. Schools do this often when they have no real chance to make postseason because the NCAA doesn’t want to be seen as piling on. That’s why Arizona basketball did this in 2020-21: the Wildcats knew they weren’t making the tournament anyway, so why not make it look like they’d sacrificed a season as punishment?
Historically, the NCAA doesn’t add to self-imposed penalties. If that gamble pays off, it’s a win for ASU.
The Silver Lining: Dillingham’s Pressure-Free First Year as Head Coach
With a bowl now going from unlikely to impossible, Dillingham has 11 games to coach pressure-free in Tempe. Most of his skill players have eligibility next season, so he can take a long-term approach and focus on improving for 2024 more than trying to win games now.
For a first-time head coach, getting a free year to make mistakes and see what works is a huge benefit. He’ll have the pressure on against Arizona, of course, but ASU fans won’t care if the Sun Devils go 4-8 this season as long as they beat the Wildcats. Dillingham had to act devastated for his players and the cameras, but deep down, he likely knows this year of “probation” is really a great thing for him and his program.