What Colorado’s Departure Could Mean For PAC-12

A Shift in Landscape

SAN FRANCISCO, Calif.. – Earlier this week the University of Colorado announced it would be returning to the Big 12 conference after having competed in the Pac-12 since 2011.

Colorado will compete in the Pac-12 for one more season and then jump to the Big 12 on July 1, 2024. Its move back to Big 12 country times up perfectly with the expiration of the Pac-12’s current media deal; therefore, Colorado is not on the hook for an exit fee of any kind.

So not only does the Pac-12 lose the Colorado Buffaloes (along with its new football head coach Deion Sanders) and the Denver television market, but it does not collect an exit fee of any kind for its troubles. For comparison’s sake, if San Diego State left the Mountain West right now to join another conference for the 2024 season, it would owe the Mountain West about $34 million.

But what does Colorado’s departure mean for the future of the Pac-12?

Pac-12’s Optimism amidst Uncertainty

Despite not officially announcing its new media deal at its football media day on July 21, several Pac-12 officials appeared optimistic, alluding to the idea that member schools will be rewarded for their patience and that new opportunities had been presenting themselves; that a deal would be finalized in “the near future.”

Surely, though, any negotiations with media partners that were far down the road had been including ten member schools and the Denver media market. Back to the drawing board, I guess.

Speculations and Scenarios: Big 12’s Expansion and Pac-12’s Diminution

Meanwhile, in the Big 12, Brett Yormark has publicly stated the Big 12 would be interested in adding an additional one to three teams to follow Colorado’s departure. Here is a doomsday scenario for the Pac-12 that is seeming increasingly more possible every day:

• Big 12 adds Utah as its 14th member institution. Utah joined the Pac-12 at the same time as Colorado in July 2011. Utah had been in the Mountain West prior to joining the Pac-12. Utah’s joining the Big 12 (in this imaginary scenario) reunites the Utes with the TCU Horned Frogs, who spurned the Mountain West for the Big 12 in 2012.

• Assuming Commissioner Yormark actually does have his sights set on 16 schools – which would match the number of SEC schools – the Big 12 then adds Arizona and Arizona State. It has been long rumored that the Big 12 may target the “four corner schools” – Colorado, Utah, Arizona and Arizona State. The Arizona schools give the Big 12 perhaps the most powerful basketball conference in the country (e.g. conference matchups between Kansas and Arizona).

• The Big Ten, sensing an opportunity to further pounce on the Pac-12, adds Washington and Oregon – and creates a Big Ten west division. Washington and Oregon become travel partners to go along with new Big Ten members in Southern California, UCLA and USC.

• With Colorado’s departure, at this point, the Pac-12 would consist of only four schools: Stanford, Cal, Oregon State and Washington State. In this Pac-12-doomsday-scenario, it becomes easier to envision these four schools finding new homes than it might be for the Pac-12 to quickly add eight more institutions. Oregon State and Washington State would make great additions to the Mountain West – which could then identify one more school to get to an even fourteen institutions (i.e. the Mountain West adding another school like New Mexico State would allow the conference to split into two seven-team divisions and establish travel partners). Stanford and Cal would be the two remaining Pac-12 schools; with their academic profiles and competitiveness in Olympic sports, both programs would have their pick of just about any conference.