With four new members in the fold, no Power 5 conference has changed as much as the Big 12. It changes again next year, as Texas and Oklahoma will exit for the SEC in 2024. Before we get to that, however, we’ve got 14 teams chasing the league championship — and feeling like it’s wide open after TCU went from 3-6 in 2021 to sweeping through the league without a loss last year. Here’s what’s up in the air in the Big 12.
Is Texas Really Back?
It’s one of college football’s traditions at this point: Texas has a decently competitive season and everyone declares the Longhorns back at the top of the league. This year, it might actually be true. The Longhorns return Quinn Ewers at quarterback, all five starters on the offensive line and its three best pass-catchers. The defense finally started to click last year under Pete Kwiatkowski, and if that improvement holds up, the Longhorns have the ability to navigate what might be the league’s toughest schedule.
Can TCU and Kansas State Run It Back?
Over the past three years, six different schools have played in the Big 12 title game and nobody has finished above .500 in the league all three seasons. TCU and K-State probably aren’t going to break that trend. Both teams were hit hard by departures, with the Frogs in particular having to replace 12 starters.
If one does break the trend, it’s probably going to be the Wildcats. They don’t face Oklahoma, and most of their tougher opponents come to Manhattan. K-State’s defense is inexperienced, but if the Wildcats can get their young defenders to grow up quickly, they’ve got a chance to return to Arlington.
Do Any Newcomers Have a Chance?
Houston and Cincinnati both wish this move happened in 2021. Both teams were national powers two years ago, but after both lost their top weapons and the Bearcats lost coach Luke Fickell, both are shells of their former selves as Big 12 life begins. Central Florida probably has the best chance among the four newcomers, as it returns most of its offense and faces Kansas, West Virginia, Cincinnati and Houston. But if you’re looking for a shock champion out of this quartet, you’d probably be well-served to look elsewhere.