Is the SEC West Already Finished For the College Football Playoff?
It’s the final season for the SEC’s divisional setup after creating the concept and a championship game in 1992. And for much of the past 20 years, the SEC West has been the home of some of the best football not only in the Southeast, but in the nation. Up until last season, every year from 2009 had featured at least one SEC West team in either the College Football Playoff or the BCS National Championship Game.
But for its last year, the SEC West seems to be exiting with barely a whimper.
After just two weeks, Alabama, LSU and Texas A&M all carry a resume-killing loss in their non-conference slate. The Tigers and Aggies both lost to ACC opponents from Florida (Florida State and Miami), and Alabama fell at home to future SEC member Texas. The Longhorns might help the SEC narrative next year (as will Oklahoma), but they’re still in the Big 12 for this final season.
And that’s a problem, because outside of Oxford, Mississippi, nobody else in the West has looked very good. Arkansas won’t impress anyone beating Western Carolina and Kent State, Auburn barely escaped California and Mississippi State did the same against Arizona. Those could be good wins if the Golden Bears and Wildcats prove better than expected, but both schools face Oregon State, USC, Utah, Washington State and Washington and Cal also gets Oregon. That means those wins will probably look worse, not better, as the season continues.
It’s strange to say it, but unless this is finally the year Ole Miss puts it all together and gets to Atlanta, the SEC West probably won’t be a factor in the playoff. Here’s why.
Lacking Quality Victories: The SEC West’s Non-Conference Struggles
The secret to the SEC’s scheduling formula is simple: Win the non-conference tests, let the perception of superiority build and only take losses in the league until the season’s end. But this year, the SEC hasn’t managed the first part of the equation. Not only did LSU, Alabama and A&M all fail to hold up their end, the entire conference hasn’t gotten anything done in the non-conference.
Over in the East, Georgia’s got no meat on its schedule at all, and the league itself is to blame. The Bulldogs could have scored a big win and given the SEC a chance to build perception, but the league forced Georgia to cancel its home-and-home with Oklahoma when the Sooners joined the SEC. South Carolina and Vanderbilt both went out and added another loss to the ACC, and the SEC sits at 1-5 against its supposedly little brother. Even that’s not impressive, as the win was Tennessee beating up on ACC doormat Virginia.
What that means is beating SEC teams might not carry as much weight this season. Georgia’s the only SEC team anyone’s willing to say is definitely good, and that’s a problem. If the Bulldogs do slip when they play better teams than Ball State, the SEC’s entire power structure could collapse. And Georgia won’t play a top-tier SEC team until November, by which time the narrative will be mostly set.
Georgia hasn’t taken a loss to anyone but Alabama in two years, but unless Auburn plans to shock the world on Sept. 30, the West needs the Dawgs more than ever this season.
No Margin For Error: The High Stakes for Alabama, LSU, and Texas A&M
A two-loss team has never made the playoff, and that almost certainly won’t change this season. That means that one more loss finishes off Alabama, LSU and/or A&M. The bad news: That means Alabama and/or A&M has to either beat Tennessee twice or beat both Georgia and Tennessee, depending on the East race.
While it’s technically possible that Kentucky or Missouri could sneak into the East Division’s top spot, it would be a mammoth surprise if anyone other than Georgia or Tennessee claimed the East crown. Of course, Alabama and Texas A&M both landed on Tennessee’s schedule this season. Now that both carry a loss, defeat against the Volunteers is intolerable.
LSU got the good fortune to avoid the Dawgs this season, but that doesn’t mean the Bayou Bengals have an easy path. LSU’s about to face both Mississippi State and Mississippi on the road in September, with Arkansas’ visit sandwiched in there. In a span of three weeks, the Tigers could knock out everyone but Auburn or knock themselves out of the running. But if they survive that gauntlet, they still have to go to Alabama in November and then beat Georgia or Tennessee just to make the playoff.
SEC coaches have long said how going undefeated in the league is virtually impossible without an all-time team, such as 2019 LSU or 2022 Georgia. But now they’ve got to prove that wrong, or their playoff hope is over.
The Oxford Hope: Ole Miss as the SEC West’s Last Playoff Hope
So is it hopeless for the SEC West champ to make the playoffs? No, but one of two things has to happen. Either it’s got to be Ole Miss (who of course drew Georgia in Athens), or someone’s got to run the table and upset the East champion. In the latter case, it’s still going to be dicey. If Texas, Florida State, Penn State and Oregon/USC/Oregon State all prove as good as expected and go undefeated (a much easier task outside the SEC), there won’t be room for any SEC West team to make it with even one loss.
That would be truly unthinkable: the possibility of a playoff without the SEC. That’s how bad of a week Week 2 was for the country’s toughest conference: what was once unthinkable is now very real just two weeks into the campaign. Unless Lane Kiffin and Jaxson Dart can keep it rolling, the SEC West is probably a non-factor in the playoffs this year.