Everyone loves finding surprise teams each college football season, but for every action, there’s an equal and opposite reaction. If we’re going to have surprises, we also must have disappointments. Whether it’s a harder schedule, a loss of talented athletes or a coaching change, these schools might be spending the winter at home after going bowling last year.
1. Duke
The Blue Devils lived off turnovers last year, finishing plus-16 in turnover margin. That likely won’t repeat this season. The end of divisions hurts, as Boston College, Georgia Tech and Virginia Tech fall off the schedule, replaced by Clemson, Florida State and N.C. State. Throw in a home game with Notre Dame, and it’s hard to see Duke doing better than 5-7.
2. Connecticut
The Huskies were a feel-good story last year at 6-6, but they’ll have a hard time reaching that again. Visits from Duke and N.C. State might sell tickets, but they’ll likely also bring defeats, and the Huskies must travel to Boston College, Tennessee and James Madison. Six wins is possible, but Connecticut needs everything to go right and probably still needs one upset to get there.
3. Illinois
Without Tommy DeVito, Chase Brown and Devon Witherspoon, Illinois could struggle. The opener is a tricky one against MAC favorite Toledo, and the Illini face Maryland, Minnesota, Iowa and Kansas away and Penn State and Wisconsin at home. If the young returnees can’t grow up quickly, this will be a transition year in Champaign.
4. Missouri
The Tigers squeezed into a bowl last year, but Brady Cook comes off shoulder surgery and they lose sack leader D.J. Coleman. They go to Vanderbilt, Kentucky and Arkansas this year, and if they don’t win at least two, they’ll likely have to find a win off Georgia, Tennessee, LSU or Florida to make a bowl. It’s possible, but very difficult.
5. Washington State
Losing their four best receivers doesn’t help the Cougars’ chances, even with Cameron Ward returning. Washington State drew road games at Oregon, Washington and UCLA, and tricky home tests with Oregon State and Wisconsin leave no margin for error. A slip against the likes of Arizona or Colorado would likely doom Wazzu.