The Great Pac-12 Exodus
SAN FRANCISCO, Calif. – And then there were four.
First Colorado bolted for the Big 12. Then, last Friday, Washington and Oregon jumped to the Big Ten followed by Arizona, Arizona State and Utah ditching the Pac-12’s sinking ship for the Big 12. All of these moves will take effect on July 1, 2024.
Now the self-proclaimed “Conference of Champions” has only four members left for 2024 and beyond: Cal, Oregon State, Stanford and Washington State.
Challenges of Streaming Exclusive Deals
Pac-12 commissioner George Kliavkoff was hoping that presenting a viable Apple TV+ deal would encourage the remaining members to stay. But relying solely on a paid streaming service like Apple TV+ is difficult for a couple reasons.
Time travel back to when you were first discovering your favorite sports teams or athletes on television or radio. You’re on the couch scrolling aimlessly up and down the channels when you find the last quarter of a college football game. Or the last possession of a one possession college basketball game. You just happened upon that game by chance and maybe saw something that kept you coming back for more.
With Apple TV+’s paywall ($6.99 per month) it would be difficult for these teams to reach new fans and grow its following. You’re not going to accidentally stumble onto a new team that’s playing on Apple TV.
The paid streaming service also poses a small issue in recruiting. Family and friends of recruits would prefer not to have to pay to watch their loved ones compete. Lastly, Apple TV+ ‘only’ has 25 million subscribers (as of March 2022) whereas Amazon and its NFL Thursday Night Football broadcast is available to over 200 million Amazon subscribers.
Pac-12’s Uncertain Future
So what now for the Pac-12?
Well, it’s courtship of schools like Colorado State, SMU, SDSU, UNLV and others is unlikely unless they completely waive any sort of exit fee. Schools won’t be paying in the $15-35 million range to join a conference with only four teams and no concrete media day.
The most logical geographic course of action would be for the Pac-12 to merge with the Mountain West. A new ‘Pac West’ could consist of the four Pac-12 teams, the 11 Mountain West schools and split up into two divisions. In a perfect world, one of the Mountain West schools (i.e. Wyoming, Air Force) could move elsewhere and set the table for two seven-team Pac West divisions.
The AAC has also expressed interest in gobbling up the four Pac-12 schools. According to On3, an AAC league source declared that the AAC is “interested in adding any or all of the four remaining Pac-12 Conference schools.” The AAC commissioner, Mike Aresco – who previously ran the Big East – may be the college commissioner who is most seasoned in conference realignments (having oversaw AAC’s additions of Charlotte, FAU, UAB, North Texas, UTSA and Rice after they lost UCF, Cincinnati and Houston to the Big 12). So expect the AAC is be aggressive in its pursuit of high achieving athletic and academic institutions that remain momentarily in Pac-12 purgatory.